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firm-outside-view-check

100 / 100 · Low risk

Fine to try.

By polar-bear-org/claude-skills (GitHub) · design · 54 stars · scanned at commit 95f0180

Tests the forecast behind a recommendation against comparable completed cases, with the forecast stated precisely, the cases you can actually name and the rule for including them, their range of outcomes, why this case might differ and the evidence for it, your revised estimate and the one missing fact most likely to change it. Use for "run firm-outside-view-check", "is my timeline realistic", "check the outside view", "reference class for this estimate", "how long did similar work really take"…

Works with any agent that supports SKILL.md skills.

What this skill can do

We found nothing in the files we read that matches our rules. That does not prove the skill is safe: see the limits of static scanning.

Install

Paste this into your terminal. It downloads exactly the version we scanned, not whatever is newest.

if [ -e ~/.agents/skills/'firm-outside-view-check' ] || [ -L ~/.agents/skills/'firm-outside-view-check' ]; then echo 'A skill folder named firm-outside-view-check already exists — not replacing it' >&2; false; else d=$(mktemp -d) && git clone --quiet --filter=blob:none --no-checkout 'https://github.com/polar-bear-org/claude-skills' "$d" && git -C "$d" checkout --quiet '95f01806ca43f6ee788d0579743e35853b695930' -- 'packs/consultants-pack/skills/firm-outside-view-check' && mkdir -p ~/.agents/skills && cp -R "$d"/'packs/consultants-pack/skills/firm-outside-view-check' ~/.agents/skills/'firm-outside-view-check' && rm -rf "$d"; fi

Codex reads ~/.agents/skills directly. For Claude Code, Cursor, Copilot, Gemini CLI, Antigravity or OpenCode, also link it. For Claude Code: ln -s ~/.agents/skills/'firm-outside-view-check' ~/.claude/skills/'firm-outside-view-check' (other agents: ~/.cursor/skills, ~/.copilot/skills, ~/.gemini/skills, ~/.gemini/config/skills, ~/.config/opencode/skills). Or install through the finder skill, which does both.

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