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reference-class-forecasting

100 / 100 · Low risk

Fine to try.

By onfire7777/universal-ai-skills-library (GitHub) · other · 17 stars · scanned at commit 2a76bf4

Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.

Works with any agent that supports SKILL.md skills.

What this skill can do

We found nothing in the files we read that matches our rules. That does not prove the skill is safe: see the limits of static scanning.

Install

Paste this into your terminal. It downloads exactly the version we scanned, not whatever is newest.

if [ -e ~/.agents/skills/'reference-class-forecasting' ] || [ -L ~/.agents/skills/'reference-class-forecasting' ]; then echo 'A skill folder named reference-class-forecasting already exists — not replacing it' >&2; false; else d=$(mktemp -d) && git clone --quiet --filter=blob:none --no-checkout 'https://github.com/onfire7777/universal-ai-skills-library' "$d" && git -C "$d" checkout --quiet '2a76bf42ce5c860adf8d0f3fcf3f6804109ac65b' -- 'skills/reference-class-forecasting' && mkdir -p ~/.agents/skills && cp -R "$d"/'skills/reference-class-forecasting' ~/.agents/skills/'reference-class-forecasting' && rm -rf "$d"; fi

Codex reads ~/.agents/skills directly. For Claude Code, Cursor, Copilot, Gemini CLI, Antigravity or OpenCode, also link it. For Claude Code: ln -s ~/.agents/skills/'reference-class-forecasting' ~/.claude/skills/'reference-class-forecasting' (other agents: ~/.cursor/skills, ~/.copilot/skills, ~/.gemini/skills, ~/.gemini/config/skills, ~/.config/opencode/skills). Or install through the finder skill, which does both.

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